Are 'vintage' items trending up at auction?

Big increase in 'vintage' items sold between 2011-2016

The number of items sold (indicated by the blue line and blue "x" axis on the left) shows almost a ten-fold increase over the time period. The average price (red line and red "x" axis on right), however, does not strongly correlate with the number of items sold. A possible explanation is that the average price levels off between $130 and $160 as supply and demand come into balance. To see the actual figures for "number of items" or "average price," place your cursor over each dot below.

Trend likely to continue in 2017

As of mid-June 2017, almost 2,000 "vintage" items had been sold according to the auction records at liveauctioneers.com, a worldwide host of online auctions in real time. At this rate, some 4,000 items would be sold by year's end if trends continue at the same pace. The slope of the blue line from 2012 onward seems to indicate that there is room for the number of items sold each year to grow for at least the near future.

One sign that the trend upward may be leveling off is when the average price starts falling. This would indicate that supply exceeds demand and foretell a decline in the market.

The data in this chart reflect items that sold for at least $1.00 at auction houses in the United States and items of American origin. There are 5,464 such items in liveauctioneers.com's records with the word, "vintage," in the heading of the item. The worldwide total for "vintage" items that sold for at least $1.00 is approximately 280,000 items.